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THE PRESENT PAPER INVESTIGATES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SOCIAL CLASS OF A SAMPLE OF BRITISH LABOUR COUNCILLORS AND THEIR POLITICAL ATTITUDES, TO EXAMINE WHETHER OR NOT MIDDLE-CLASS ACTIVISTS DIFFER FUNDAMENTALLY FROM THEIR WORKING CLASS COUNTERPARTS WITH RESPECT TO POLITICAL ATTITUDES. FINDINGS, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR PARTY POLICY, ARE DISCUSSED.

THIS PAPER INVESTIGATES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL INCUMBENCY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES IN THE LONG RUN. THE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEMOCRATS HAVE STIMULATED GROWTH BEYOND TRENDS WHEN TWO CONDITIONS ARE MET: FIRST, WHEN AN INCOMING ADMINISTRATION IS FORMALLY COMMITTED TO PROMOTING GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT, AND SECOND, WHEN THAT ADMINISTRATION HAS AT LEAST TWO TERMS OF OFFICE TO IMPLEMENT THOSE GOALS. THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS LINKING INCUMBENCY AND GROWTH ARE EXPLORED BY MEANS OF A STANDARD KEYNESIAN IS-LM MODEL, WHICH IS AUGMENTED BY ADDITIONAL RELEVANT VARIABLES. THE TRANSMISSIONS PROCESS WORKS VIA MONETARY POLICY, FISCAL POLICY, AND WELFARE EXPENDITURE. IT ALSO SEEMS LIKELY THAT CHANGING EXPECTATIONS OF CONSUMERS AND INVESTORS STIMULATED THE ECONOMY BEYOND TRENDS FOR SOME DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS.

THE EVALUATION OF VOTER'S PERCEPTIONS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS TO VOTING BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY NEGLECTED TOPIC IN BRITISH POLITICS. A MODEL OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS IS SPECIFIED AND ESTIMATED USING DATA FROM A SURVEY OF THE ELECTORATE CARRIED OUT AT THE TIME OF THE GENERAL ELECTION OF 1983. THE MODEL DEMONSTRATES STRONG UNDERLYING LINKS BETWEEN PARTISANSHIP, PERCEPTIONS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, AND SALIENT NONECONOMIC ISSUES DURING THE ELECTION. THE LATENT CONSTRUCT UNDERLYING THESE VARIABLES IS A HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT PREDICTOR OF THE PROBABILITY OF VOTING CONSERVATIVE IN THAT ELECTION. BY CONTRAST, PERCEPTIONS OF PERSONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT PREDICTOR OF VOTING BEHAVIOR AT ALL. OVERALL, THESE RESULTS SHOW THAT PERCEPTIONS OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE PLAYED A HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION IN 1983.

Cover -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Introduction: Party Transformation -- 1. The Blair Project: Setting the Context -- 2. The Grassroots Members: Who Are They? -- 3. The Grassroots: What Do They Believe? -- 4. What Do They Do? -- 5. Activism and Campaigning in the New Labour Party -- 6. What Do the Members Think of the Party and the Government? -- 7. Conclusions -- Appendix -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index.

There is a continuing debate among political scientists & commentators about the relevance of local party campaigns in influencing the vote in British general elections. We review that debate in the case of the 1997 British general election, & then go on to specify & estimate models of the influence of local campaigning on the constituency vote share for Labour, the Liberal Democrats, & the Conservatives in that election. In contrast to the MI studies, which have tended to emphasize long-term partisan & policy-related predispositions, the results of our analysis show that local campaigning, measured from surveys of local party members together with proxy variables based on constituency spending data, had a very important influence on the vote. The effects appear to be strongest for the Liberal Democrats, important for New Labour, & rather weak for the Conservatives. The findings are relevant for both debates about campaign effects in GB & debates about the electoral-professional party model. The results imply that the image of the electoral-professional party as a well-organized 'army' that obeys commands from the center is misleading when applied to understanding party election campaigns. 6 Tables, 2 Figures, 47 References. Adapted from the source document.